Winners of LBMA's 2020 Precious Metals Forecast Survey
Monday, January 11, 2021
In mid-January 2020, analysts provided their forecasts for what they thought the average price in 2020 would be for each of the four metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium).
Four 1 oz gold bars kindly donated by MKS PAMP GROUP are the reward for the analyst in each of the four metal categories whose forecast is closest to the actual average price in 2020. In the event of a tie, we take into account the analysts' forecast ranges, with the one with the range closest to the actual range during 2020 taking precedence.
Congratulations to the winning analysts and commiserations to the runners-up.
1st half Jan 2020(a)
|Gold||$1,554.2||$1,558.8||$1,769.59||$1,755||Ross Norman||Independent Consultant|
|Silver||$18.08||$18.21||$20.55||$19.25||Ross Norman||Independent Consultant|
|Platinum||$973.6||$1,005.1||$882.63||$880||Kieran Clancy||Capital Economics|
|Palladium||$2,065.2||$2,116||$2,192.54||$2,200||Zhexing Wang||Bank of China|
(a) 2nd -14 January 2020 inclusive (based on the pm LBMA Gold Price).
SILVER - 2020 Actual Average Price $20.55
Analysts had forecast that the silver price would average $18.21 in 2020, a rather bullish forecast compared to the actual average in 2019 of $16.2. However, the actual average price out turned at $20.55, and so again it paid to be at the bullish end of the spectrum.
In a photo finish with just five cents separating the first three, Ross Norman snatched first place with his forecast of $19.25. This represents Ross's ninth first place finish since the Survey began, so congratulations to him for such an impressive haul.
Commiserations must go to the two runners up, particularly Bhargava Vaidya (B.N. Vaidya & Associates) who was just one cent behind with his forecast of $19.24. With his second top three finish in the 2020 Survey in third spot was Rene Hochreiter a whisker away with his forecast of $19.20.
PLATINUM - 2020 Actual Average Price $882.63
Analysts had forecast a bullish outlook for platinum prices in 2020 with an average forecast of $1,005.1 compared to the actual average price in 2019 of $862.9. However, the actual average price in 2020 was $882.63, just over $90 below its price in the first half of 2020.
Taking first place was Kieran Clancy (Capital Economics) with his forecast of $880, which was less than $3 from the actual average. So congratulations to Kieran for such an impressive prediction.
Not lurking far behind in second place was Hans-Guenter Ritter (Heraeus) with his forecast of $875 and in third place was Daniel Briesemann (Commerzbank AG) with his forecast of $900.
PALLADIUM - 2020 Actual Average Price $2,192.54
In the first half of January 2020 palladium prices hit a succession of record highs to an average price of $2,065.2. Analysts forecast average prices for 2020 to be just $50 higher at $2,116. The actual average price for the year was $2,192.54 and three analysts with a more bullish outlook fought out the tightest of finishes. In a three way tie for first place all three forecast that prices would be $2,200 just $7 away from the actual price.
They could only be separated by comparing their high and low ranges against the actual high and low for 2020. Snatching first prize was Zhexing Wang (Bank of China) by virtue of his low/high ranges of $1,610 and $2,500 which were closest to the actual low/high range of $1,557 and $2,781.
Desperately unlucky in second and third place were Joni Teves (UBS Limited) and Neil Meader (Metals Focus), and our commiserations go out to them both for missing out by the finest of margins.