Results of the 2018 Precious Metals Forecast Survey
Friday, January 11, 2019
LBMA is delighted to announce the results of its 2018 Precious Metals Forecast Survey. The Survey attracts the top analysts from the international precious metals market.
The objective is to forecast as accurately as possible the average, high and low price range of the four main precious metals for the year ahead. The analyst who is closest to the average price for the year ahead wins (based on the average $ daily LBMA pm prices). In the event of a tie, the forecast range is taken into account.
2018 LBMA Forecast Winners
1st half Jan 2018(a)
|Silver||$17.13||$17.81||$15.71||$16.00||Robin Bhar||Societe Generale|
|Platinum||$970||$1,000||$879.70||$884||Ross Norman||Sharps Pixley|
|Palladium||$1,097||$1,080||$1,029.19||$1,038||Suki Cooper||Standard Chartered Bank|
(a) 2nd to 15th January, 2018 inclusive.
“There’s gold in them thar hills”
Congratulations go to the four winning analysts, Gold – Aakash Doshi (CitiGroup) Silver – Robin Bhar (Societe Generale), Platinum – Ross Norman (Sharps Pixley) and Palladium Suki Cooper (Standard Chartered Bank). They each receive a prize of a 1 oz gold bar, kindly donated by PAMP.
In the 2018 Survey, analysts had forecast that the gold price in 2018 would be $1,318 broadly in line with the price in the first half of January 2018. As it transpired the gold price in 2018 outturned nearly $50 below what they had forecast, so unlike in recent years this time they didn't get the price direction right.
Analysts’ had forecast that silver would be the best performing of the four metals in 2018, with a forecast of $17.81, 4% above the actual price of $17.13 in the first half of January 2018. However, this proved to be an optimistic outlook with the average price outturning 2018 more than $2 lower at $15.71.
For platinum analysts’ had forecast an increase of 3.1% in the price of platinum to $1,000 but again this proved optimistic with the actual average price for the year $120 lower at $879.70.
Analysts’ had predicted a modest decrease of 1.5% in the palladium price, and whilst they got the price direction correct their forecast of $1,080 proved to be on the optimistic side with the average for the year being just over $50 lower at $1,029.19.
Aakash Doshi (CitiGroup) claimed first prize with his forecast of $1,270, just $1.59 off the actual average for the year. Taking the runners up spot was Hans Guenter-Ritter (Heraeus) with his forecast of $1,255 and in third place was James Steel (HSBC) with $1,284.
Just ten cents separated the forecasts of the two analysts who fought out the finish for first prize. Robin Bhar (Societe Generale) raised the bar and indeed claimed the bar with his forecast of $16, just edging out Bernard Dahdah (Natixis) into second ($16.10), against an actual average price for the year of $15.71. In third position was Nell Agate (CitiGroup) with a forecast of $16.70. The three of them took the top three places by virtue of being the most bearish of all the analysts.
Again those who fought out the finish for the platinum prize were those who adopted a bearish outlook for the silver metal. Claiming first prize was Ross Norman (Sharps Pixley) with his forecast of $884 less than $5 off the actual average price in 2018 ($879.70). This is Ross's sixth forecast first prize taking him top in the all time leader board alongside Philip Klapwijk and Rene Hochreiter. Back in second place was Glyn Stevens (Independent) with his forecast of $862 followed in third by Bernard Dahdah with his prediction of $910.
Suki Cooper (Standard Chartered Bank) came out on top in a tight finish with her forecast of $1,038, less than $9 off the actual average price for the year ($1,029.19). She just edged out Bart Melek (TD Securities) into second ($1,019) with Bernard Dahdah grabbing third with his forecast of $1,040.
Last but not least.......
Many thanks to all the forecast contributors and PAMP for the generous donation of the winning prizes.
The results of the 2019 Precious Metals Forecast Survey will be published at the end of January, 2019.